Demonstrations expressing solidarity with the Iranian protesters occurred in Erbil and Sulaymaniyah in Iraqi Kurdistan and Qamishli in northern Syria on September 28. The regime’s brutal crackdown and continuing IRGC attacks are stoking unrest in Kurdish communities throughout the region. The most recent round of IRGC attacks on September 28 killed an American citizen, Omar Mahmoudzadeh, in Iraqi Kurdistan. Iranian state media have claimed that anti-regime Kurdish groups are fomenting instability against the regime. The IRGC has conducted five consecutive days of attacks involving artillery, drones, and missiles into Iraqi Kurdistan. The IRGC may assess that anti-regime Kurdish militants operating around the Iran-Iraq-Turkey border are arming and stoking the protests. These protests do not appear close to collapsing the regime at this time, however. The Basij is a paramilitary branch of the IRGC responsible for civil defense and social control. Tehran security officials reported that 185 Basij members were injured in the protests with five in critical condition. State security services have launched a bloody crackdown against the ongoing protests but have struggled with bandwidth constraints and exhaustion according to some Iranian media outlets. Protests have concentrated primarily in ethnically Kurdish regions of Iran, where Amini lived, and Tehran but spread rapidly to other locations and demographics. Protests began on September 16 in response to the regime’s brutal killing of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini.
#SUPREME COMMANDER FACTIONS CRACK#
The ongoing Mahsa Amini protests are straining the regime’s capability and willingness to crack down but are not yet existential to the regime. President Ebrahim Raisi-a prominent frontrunner to succeed Khamenei-is positioning himself to become the next supreme leader with support from senior officers from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Regime power centers are behaving as if succession is either imminent or underway. There are indications that Khamenei is ill or incapacitated, however. CTP cannot verify these rumors about Khamenei’s health, and such reports should be treated with skepticism. Rumors have circulated that Khamenei’s health has deteriorated significantly since early September. Khamenei has been unusually absent in recent days amidst countrywide, anti-regime protests, which began on September 16.
Ĭircumstantial evidence suggests that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is at least temporarily unable to perform his normal duties. To receive Iran Crisis Updates via email, please subscribe here.
The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
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